Insecurity'S Toll on Agriculture: Analyzing Nigeria'S Agricultural Productivity Challenges
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.64229/by74en81Keywords:
Insecurity, Agricultural Productivity, Nigeria, VECMAbstract
Human existence depends on the stability of its surroundings and consistent access to food, both of which are essential for societal sustainability. This study examines how insecurity affects Nigeria’s agricultural productivity between 1983 and 2021. It draws on the Cobb–Douglas production framework, the frustration–aggression perspective, and analytical conflict theory to explain the interaction between insecurity and productive capacity. Annual time-series data were compiled from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin, the National Bureau of Statistics, and the World Bank’s development indicators. Descriptive statistics and econometric analyses, specifically the Pairwise Granger Causality test and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), were applied to test the hypotheses. Results indicate that insecurity does not directly cause changes in agricultural productivity during the study period. Nevertheless, insecurity exerts a statistically significant negative influence in the long run, while short-run effects appear weakly positive. The analysis also suggests that insecurity relates positively to food-security measures in both short- and long-term horizons. The study therefore recommends an integrated policy response that combines peacebuilding initiatives, conflict management, and strengthened security systems to create a stable environment for agricultural advancement.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Aondover Dennis Ungwa, Godwin Ker, Nenge Iorun (Author)
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